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Monday, January 02, 2006

SI says "don't fret" (ep)

The Rant

Don't fret Red Sox nation, Boston will be just fine

Posted: Thursday December 29, 2005 12:09PM; Updated: Thursday December 29, 2005 12:09PM

Red Sox nation is flocking like lemmings to the edge of the Green Monster. "Abysmal" is the word I'm hearing most often to describe the team's offseason, with "dreadful" and "atrocious" close behind. Listening to the masses, you'd think the team was going to take the field on Opening Day with still unresolved issues regarding centerfield and shortstop, that Manny Ramirez's and David Wells' trade requests were still pending and that the third place team in the division had started printing its own Loonies. Some of them even agree with those dimwitted scribes who have suggested the Red Sox are (mouth trembling)... rebuilding. That Johnny Damon's defection to the Yankees was the anvil that broke the camel's back.

Relax. It's not that bad. Other than the fact that he'll be 37 at the end of the contract, has no arm, doesn't steal bases anymore and was breaking down last season, Damon was a steal for the Yankees. Yes, he'll help the Bronx Bombers immensely next year, but on the back end of that deal, they'll basically be dealing with Bernie Williams redux.

If I was GM of the Red Sox (and with a mastery of statistics and an Ivy League diploma, I probably could be), I would have two theorems written on my wall: 1) Sign players on the way up, not on the way down; 2) It's the pitching, stupid.

Theorem 1 explains how letting Damon go showed prudence. When building a team that can survive the rigors of 162 games in 183 days, think Van Wilder and not Van Winkle. The Sox and Yanks were both running on fumes in last season's playoffs and it showed. This theorem also explains why Edgar "Stone Hands" Renteria (a league-leading 30 errors in '05), Kevin Millar (HRs down from 25 to 18 to 9 in the last three years) and Bill Mueller (decent player, but he's 34-years-old) were not retained. Conversely, you could make an argument that the Yankees have but two players (Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang) on their 25-man roster whose best years are ahead of them.

Theorem 2 explains why trading for Josh Beckett was a heist. Let us not forget that if Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke give the team anything in 2006, that'll be an improvement over their contributions to last year's team, which still made the playoffs.

Whether young Theo returns on his white horse or not, the Sox will be more than fine. They're getting younger, their pitching is improved and their farm system is finally producing fruits for the big club. Conversely, the Yankees average age keeps going up like George Steinbrenner's blood pressure every year his team doesn't win the World Series. New York's rotation is a strained back and a pulled oblique away from being in shambles. As long as the Sox don't give in to Manny's trade request, I'd say they will be on their way to their first American League East title since 1995.

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